I Think it´s time to understand Past, Present and Future of the AI Revolution and the Road to Artifical Superintelligence (ASI)
Artificial superintelligence is coming, probably whether we like it or not, and probably within our lifetimes. If many of the experts are correct, this will either be our greatest dream or our worst nightmare.
Tim Urban
Past, Present and Future of the AI Revolution and the Road to Artifical Superintelligence (ASI)
It´s clear. You cannot develop into Artifical Superintelligence without understanding where it comes from (Past), Which current Systems, Software, Apps and Services (SSAS) are on the market in 2023 and what are the directions these SSAS are developing.
We have constructed cities that sprawl for miles and built skyscrapers that pierce the heavens. We have tunneled through mountains, redirected rivers and spawned new bodies of land. Roads and power lines crisscross the ground, while airplanes and satellites clog the atmosphere and beyond. With our dominion over Earth secure, we have even set our sights on conquering the solar system.
It took us several million years to reach this point. But progress has snowballed since the first industrial revolution of the late 18th century. In less than 250 years, we catapulted from horse-drawn carts to self-driving cars; from navigating by the stars to relying on voice-activated GPS instructions; from penning letters to loved ones to having awkward conversations with Siri.
The Internet, above all, has shaped more aspects of society across civilizations than any single invention of the past. The ability to instantaneously communicate and share and consume information – be it cat videos or scientific research – has amplified the pace of technological breakthroughs. As Gordon Moore, the co-founder of Intel and Fairchild Semiconductor, observed in 1965, processing power doubles every two years as transistors in a chip gain in abundance and speed – a rate emblematic of broader discovery and innovation.
Kondratieff Cycles as an Explanation Model of World Development into the fourth industrial revolution -an Intelligence Century.
There is no uniform progression in market economy; in fact, upturns and downturns regularly take turns with each other. The short busines cycles that last approximately three years are called Kitchin cycles; the medium term ones lasting between 7 to 11 years are called Juglar cycles. However, there are also long economic cycles that last between 40 to 60 years. They are named Kondratieff cycles after their discoverer Nikolai Kondratieff.
The triggers for these long waves are groundbreaking inventions that are called basic innovations below. To identify them, you have to look for them on four levels: On the technological, economic, societal and on the time level.
We have entered the fourth industrial revolution, an era that that will be defined and driven by extreme automation and ubiquitous connectivity.
Like the three other industrial revolutions, the changes borne during this period will irrevocably alter the course of our future and the way we interact with technology and each other. But in this new digital age, there will be one development so profound and seismic that it will rupture the Earth’s long-held human-centric status quo – the birth and transcendence of Artificial intelligence (AI) into Artifical Superintelligence (ASI).
What Is AI?
If you’re like me, you used to think artificial intelligence was a silly sci-fi concept, but lately you’ve been hearing it mentioned by serious people, and you don’t quite get it.
There are three reasons a lot of people are confused about the term “AI”:
1) We associate AI with movies. Star Wars. Terminator. 2001: A Space Odyssey. Even The Jetsons. Those are fiction, as are the robot characters, so it makes AI sound a little fictional to us.
2) “AI” is a broad topic. It ranges from your phone’s calculator to self-driving cars to something in the future that might change the world dramatically. “AI” refers to all of these things, which is confusing.
3) We use AI all the time in our daily lives, but we often don’t realize it’s AI. John McCarthy, who coined the term “artificial intelligence” in 1956, complained, “As soon as it works, no one calls it AI anymore.” Because of this phenomenon, AI often sounds more like a mythical future prediction than a reality. At the same time, it makes it sound like a pop concept from the past that never came to fruition. Ray Kurzweil says he hears people say that AI withered in the 1980s, which he compares to “insisting that the Internet died in the dot-com bust of the early 2000s.”
So let’s clear things up. First, stop thinking of robots. A robot is a container for AI — sometimes mimicking the human form, sometimes not — but the AI itself is the computer inside the robot. AI is the brain, and the robot is its body — if it even has a body. For example, the software and data behind Siri is AI, the woman’s voice we hear is a personification of that AI, and there’s no robot involved at all.
Secondly, you’ve probably heard the term “singularity” or “technological singularity.” This term has been used in math to describe an asymptote-like situation where normal rules no longer apply. It’s been used in physics to describe a phenomenon like an infinitely small, dense black hole or the point we were all squished into right before the Big Bang. Again, situations where the usual rules don’t apply. In 1993, Vernor Vinge wrote a famous essay in which he applied the term to the moment in the future when our technology’s intelligence exceeds our own — a moment for him when life as we know it will be forever changed and normal rules will no longer apply. Ray Kurzweil then muddled things a bit by defining the singularity as the time when the law of accelerating returns has reached such an extreme pace that technological progress is happening at a seemingly infinite pace, and after which we’ll be living in a whole new world. I found that many of today’s AI thinkers have stopped using the term, and it’s confusing anyway, so I won’t use it much here (even though we’ll be focusing on that idea throughout).
Finally, while there are many different types or forms of AI, since “AI” is a broad concept, the critical categories we need to think about are based on an AI’s caliber. There are three major AI caliber categories:
1) Artificial narrow intelligence (ANI): Sometimes referred to as “weak AI,” artificial narrow intelligence is AI that specializes in one area. There’s AI that can beat the world chess champion in chess, but that’s the only thing it does. Ask it to figure out a better way to store data on a hard drive and it’ll look at you blankly.
2) Artificial general intelligence (AGI): Sometimes referred to as “strong AI,” or “human-level AI,” “artificial general intelligence” refers to a computer that is as smart as a human across the board — a machine that can perform any intellectual task that a human being can. Creating an AGI is a much harder task than creating an ANI, and we’ve yet to do it. Professor Linda Gottfredson describes intelligence as “a very general mental capability that, among other things, involves the ability to reason, plan, solve problems, think abstractly, comprehend complex ideas, learn quickly, and learn from experience.” An AGI would be able to do all those things as easily as you can.
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3) Artificial superintelligence (ASI): Oxford philosopher and leading AI thinker Nick Bostrom defines “superintelligence” as “an intellect that is much smarter than the best human brains in practically every field, including scientific creativity, general wisdom and social skills.” Artificial superintelligence ranges from a computer that’s just a little smarter than a human to one that’s trillions of times smarter — across the board. ASI is the reason that the topic of AI is such a spicy meatball, and the reason that the words “immortality” and “extinction” will both appear in these posts multiple times.
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As of now, humans have conquered the lowest caliber of AI — ANI — in many ways, and it’s everywhere. The AI revolution is the road from ANI through AGI to ASI — a road that we may or may not survive but that, either way, will change everything.
Search engines as of 2022 are one large ANI brain with incredibly sophisticated methods for ranking pages and figuring out what to show you in particular. The same goes for Facebook’s Newsfeed. In the near Future (2023) Search engines like Microsoft Bing will evolve into AGI.
ChatGPT (Generative Pre-trained Transformer) is an advanced AGI chatbot trained by OpenAI which interacts in a conversational way. The dialogue format makes it possible for ChatGPT to answer followup questions, admit its mistakes, challenge incorrect premises, and reject inappropriate requests.
ChatGPT relies on the powerful GPT-3.5 technology. GPT stands for Generative Pre-Trained Transformer, a complex neural network based on the revolutionary Attention concept.
OpenAI’s mission is to ensure that artificial general intelligence (AGI)—by which we mean highly autonomous systems that outperform humans at most economically valuable work—benefits all of humanity.
I asked ChatGPT the following:
Microsoft is working to incorporate a faster version of OpenAI’s ChatGPT, known as GPT-4, into Bing in the coming weeks in a move that would make the search engine more competitive with Google, according to a new report from Semafor. The integration would see Bing using GPT-4 to answer search queries.
People familiar with the matter told Semafor that the main difference between ChatGPT and GPT-4 is speed. Although ChatGPT sometimes takes a up to a few minutes to form a response, GPT-4 is said to be a lot quicker in responding to queries. The latest software’s responses are also said to be more detailed and more humanlike.
The planned incorporation of ChatGPT into Microsoft products is expected to trigger new competition in internet search, which has largely been dominated by Google. By using GPT-4, Bing would be able to provide users with humanlike answers, as opposed to just simply displaying a list of links.
“Google Bard seeks to combine the breadth of the world’s knowledge with the power, intelligence and creativity of our large language models. It draws on information from the web to provide fresh, high-quality responses. Bard can be an outlet for creativity, and a launchpad for curiosity, helping you to explain new discoveries from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope to a 9-year-old, or learn more about the best strikers in football right now, and then get drills to build your skills.
One of the most exciting opportunities is how AI can deepen our understanding of information and turn it into useful knowledge more efficiently — making it easier for people to get to the heart of what they’re looking for and get things done. When people think of Google, they often think of turning to us for quick factual answers, like “how many keys does a piano have?” But increasingly, people are turning to Google for deeper insights and understanding — like, “is the piano or guitar easier to learn, and how much practice does each need?” Learning about a topic like this can take a lot of effort to figure out what you really need to know, and people often want to explore a diverse range of opinions or perspectives.
AI can be helpful in these moments, synthesizing insights for questions where there’s no one right answer. Soon, you’ll see AI-powered features in Search that distill complex information and multiple perspectives into easy-to-digest formats, so you can quickly understand the big picture and learn more from the web: whether that’s seeking out additional perspectives, like blogs from people who play both piano and guitar, or going deeper on a related topic, like steps to get started as a beginner. These new AI features will begin rolling out on Google Search soon.
https://blog.google/technology/ai/bard-google-ai-search-updates/
Sundar Pichai
CEO of Google and Alphabet
Superintelligence2525
I asked ChatGPT: Compare Deep Mind, ChatGPT, Google Bard and Superintelligence2525. Here is the answer.
When I got this result and my name in it, I just asked ChatGPT: Who is Friedel Jonker
Let´s take a short look at Superintelligence2525
Superintelligence2525 powered by
TV & Music Integration with Audials and MusicBee
What´s Next -Developing Superintelligence2525 into an ASI Ecosystem
It´s nice that Microsoft and Google are Developing there Search Engines further with AI. That will make it a lot easier to deepen our understanding of information and turn it into useful knowledge more efficiently.
But that´s not the End. Everyone has to build a Superintelligence2525 Ecosystem for themselfes. It´s not general Knowledge that makes you intelligent. It´s personal objective related Knowledge that should be searched by ChatGPT like AI Engines. That will transform Superintelligence 2525 AGI into Superintelligence2525 ASI.
I am working on this integration, so that you can do this in the near future.
Google AI updates: Bard and new AI features in Search (blog.google)
The World Development into an Intelligence Century in my Eyes
Whoever becomes the leader in Artificial Super Intelligence (ASI) will become the ruler of the World.
It has always been the objective of Humans to develop Systems that are better than humans themselfes.
“Data is the Driver behind ASI”
McKinsey Global Institute
The answer revolves around data. Data is food for AI and the 2000s witnessed the creation of larger and better datasets than ever. People developed large corpus for text analysis, huge data sets for images, and video processing. Which improved the accuracy of AI algorithms tremendously.
“The new spring in AI is the most significant development in computing in my lifetime. Every month, there are stunning new applications and transformative new techniques. But such powerful tools also bring with them new questions and responsibilities.”
Sergey Brin
“By the time we get to the 2040s, we’ll be able to multiply human intelligence a billionfold. That will be a profound change that’s singular in nature. Computers are going to keep getting smaller and smaller. Ultimately, they will go inside our bodies and brains and make us healthier, make us smarter.”
Ray Kurzweil, Futurist
Contrary to popular belief, ASI is far from reality. In fact, it may take anything between 15–20 years (best case scenario) to centuries to achieve it! In this article, we shall be looking at the road to achieve ASI, some current exciting projects and the dangers ASI possess.
Artificial Super Intelligence is driving massive shifts across the globe, and every day more questions arise. The narrative in the media focuses heavily on an “ASI” arms race”, with the US and China as the key players. But there is more to the story. The US and China are certainly central figures but they are not the only ones in the race, and the finish line and what characterizes a “winner” is still unclear. There is no doubt, however, that ASI will have a generational impact; for example, PwC estimates that ASI could increase global GDP by $15.7 trillion by 2030.
How artificial intelligence is shaking up the job market
The World Economic Forum’s The Future of Jobs 2018 aims to base this debate on facts rather than speculation. By tracking the acceleration of technological change as it gives rise to new job roles, occupations and industries, the report evaluates the changing contours of work in the Fourth Industrial Revolution.
One of the primary drivers of change identified is the role of emerging technologies, such as artificial intelligence (AI) and automation. The report seeks to shed more light on the role of new technologies in the labour market, and to bring more clarity to the debate about how AI could both create and limit economic opportunity. With 575 million members globally, LinkedIn’s platform provides a unique vantage point into global labour-market developments, enabling us to support the Forum’s examination of the trends that will shape the future of work.
Our analysis uncovered two concurrent trends: the continued rise of tech jobs and skills, and, in parallel, a growth in what we call “human-centric” jobs and skills. That is, those that depend on intrinsically human qualities.
Tech jobs like software engineers and data analysts, along with technical skills such as cloud computing, mobile application development, software testing and AI, are on the rise in most industries and across all regions. But a number of highly “automatable” jobs fall into the top 10 most declining occupations – ie, jobs that have seen the largest decreases in share of hiring over the past five years. These occupations include administrative assistants, customer service representatives, accountants and electrical/mechanical technicians, many of which depend on more repetitive tasks.
Three growing trends
The impact of AI is not just theoretical any more; it’s very much part of our present. So we took a closer look at how the growing presence of AI skills in the workforce is impacting different industries and job functions globally. Our research into emerging skills around the world shed light on a number of growing trends:
AI skills are among the fastest-growing skills on LinkedIn, and saw a 190% increase from 2015 to 2017. When we talk about “AI skills”, we’re referring to the skills needed to create artificial intelligence technologies, which include expertise in areas like neural networks, deep learning and machine learning, as well as actual “tools” such as Weka and Scikit-Learn. LinkedIn data shows that all types of technical AI skills are growing at a rapid pace around the world while we see AI skills growing in every industry, our data also shows that industries with more AI skills present among their workforce are also the fastest-changing industries. If we consider “change” to be a proxy for innovation, then this indicates that the presence of AI skills correlates strongly with innovation within an industry. It also means there’s an opportunity for many industries to invest more heavily in their AI capabilities.
As the recent report makes clear, the anticipated impact of AI on the labour market fits neither of the polarized narratives that tend to hog headlines. It’s estimated that by 2025, the amount of work done by machines will jump from 29% to more than 50% – but that this rapid shift will be accompanied by new labour-market demands that may result in more, rather than fewer, jobs. As the report notes, these predictions “[provide] grounds for both optimism and caution”.
While AI is unlikely to replace human workers, uncertainty remains regarding what types of jobs will be created, how permanent they will be, and what kind of training they may require. Preparing the workforce for these changes will depend on a data-driven approach to understanding the trends that are shaping the future of the labour market, and a commitment to investing in lifelong learning opportunities that can help workers adapt to rapid economic shifts.
As the world continues to invest in AI technologies, we’ll continue to assess their externalities and impact on the workforce, especially as they connect to opportunities for more effective reskilling and education initiatives. As new skills emerge, governments, educational institutions and employers should consider how they can most effectively develop learning programmes that equip people with the skills they will need to keep up with the modern economy.
How artificial intelligence is shaking up the job market | World Economic Forum (weforum.org)
How long until the first machine reaches superintelligence?
Not shockingly, opinions vary wildly and this is a heated debate among scientists and thinkers. Many, like professor Vernor Vinge, scientist Ben Goertzel, Sun Microsystems co-founder Bill Joy, or, most famously, inventor and futurist Ray Kurzweil, agree with machine learning expert Jeremy Howard when he puts up this graph during a TED Talk:
Those people subscribe to the belief that this is happening soon—that exponential growth is at work and machine learning, though only slowly creeping up on us now, will blow right past us within the next few decades.
So when do the experts think we’ll reach ASI?
Müller and Bostrom also asked the experts how likely they think it is that we’ll reach ASI A) within two years of reaching AGI (i.e. an almost-immediate intelligence explosion), and B) within 30 years. The results:4
The median answer put a rapid (2 year) AGI → ASI transition at only a 10% likelihood, but a longer transition of 30 years or less at a 75% likelihood.
We don’t know from this data the length of this transition the median participant would have put at a 50% likelihood, but for ballpark purposes, based on the two answers above, let’s estimate that they’d have said 20 years. So the median opinion—the one right in the center of the world of AI experts—believes the most realistic guess for when we’ll hit the ASI tripwire is [the 2040 prediction for AGI + our estimated prediction of a 20-year transition from AGI to ASI] = 2060.
Of course, all of the above statistics are speculative, and they’re only representative of the center opinion of the AI expert community, but it tells us that a large portion of the people who know the most about this topic would agree that 2060 is a very reasonable estimate for the arrival of potentially world-altering ASI. Only 45 years from now.
Nick Bostrom describes three ways a superintelligent AI system could function:
As an oracle, which answers nearly any question posed to it with accuracy, including complex questions that humans cannot easily answer—i.e. How can I manufacture a more efficient car engine? Google is a primitive type of oracle.
As a genie, which executes any high-level command it’s given—Use a molecular assembler to build a new and more efficient kind of car engine—and then awaits its next command.
As a sovereign, which is assigned a broad and open-ended pursuit and allowed to operate in the world freely, making its own decisions about how best to proceed—Invent a faster, cheaper, and safer way than cars for humans to privately transport themselves.
Welcome to my Blog 🙂 Smarter Learning, Work and Healthcare 2023 